Exit Popup - Worth The Risk?

Hi,

My competitor has a bad blog with 5 pages of content (yet it ranks for a competitive keyword) On top of that he is using exitsplash so you can't go back to the google search results, instead you are redirected via a tinyurl link to the affiliate sales page.

Those of you who have had experience with an exit popup that redirects to the aff offer, what has been your take on it? Is it worth it?

I worry that google will detect it and send me down the rankings If I gave it a go.